Figure 2: GDP (bold black), GDPNow (red square), S&P Market Insight (sky blue square), Goldman Sachs (light green triangle), Survey of Professional Forecasters study mean projection (blue line), all in bn.Ch.2012$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2022Q4 2nd release, Atlanta Fed, S&P Global (3/17), Goldman Sachs (3/17), Philadelphia Fed SPF (February), CBO Budget and Economic Outlook (Feb. 2023), and authors calculations.
Q1 growth is positive, however hardly, varying from a low at 0.6% q/q SAAR from SPMI (formerly Macro Advisers, formerly IHS Markit), and a high of 3.2%, from Atlanta Feds GDPNow. As of yesterday, that seems to be around 0.55% q/q SAAR.
Figure 4: Lewis-Mertens-Stock Weekly Economic Index (blue), OECD Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index for US plus 2% pattern (green). Source: NY Fed through FRED, OECD, WECI, and authors estimations.
Still, nowcasts and tracking estimates were showing development in Q1, albeit with some wide variation (and all suggesting a negative output gap, taking the CBO price quote of potential as offered).
Deceleration was still in location, according to the WEI.
Source: Liz Ann Sonders, 17 March 2023
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