March 28, 2023

Back in the Real Economy: Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-March

With commercial production for February, we have the following picture of essential indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, plus S&P Market Intelligence monthly GDP.

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, NFP (dark blue), Bloomberg agreement of 3/17 (blue +), civilian employment (orange), commercial production (red), personal earnings leaving out transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), usage in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log stabilized to 2021M11=0. Q3 Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA 2022Q4 2nd release by means of FRED, S&P Global/IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (3/1/2023 release), and authors computations.
Weekly Economic Indicators (Lewis-Mertens-Stock) for data available through March 11 suggests 0.96% for y/y growth. GDPNow as of yesterday shows Q1 development of 3.2% q/q SAAR, while S&P Market Intelligence/formerly IHS Markit has raised its tracking quote to 0.6% (q/q SAAR), up from -0.5% a month ago.

This entry was published on March 17, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

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