March 24, 2023

The Wisconsin Outlook: The State Follows the Nation

IHS Markit is forecasting a mild recession that starts in thelast quarter of 2022 and lasts until the very first half of 2023. Theforecast expects real GDP to grow 1.8% in 2022 followed bya small decrease of 0.2% in 2023, and modest growth of 1.3% in 2024.
The Department of Revenue tasks, utilizing IHS Markits baseline national projection of a mild economic crisis the most significant hits to Wisconsin employment in professional and business services employment (including temperature workers), which is very cyclically sensitive, and building and construction.
Heres the Department of Revenues present projection for nonfarm payroll employment and for GDP, outlined against actual (with February 2022 Economic Outlook projections for comparison):.

Figure 2: Wisconsin GDP (black), Wisconsin Economic Outlook projection from November (red squares), from February (green squares), all in billions Ch.2012$, SAAR. Source: BEA through FRED, DoR (different issues).
As in the country, forecasts have been downshifted since February. It would not be going to far to say that, to the degree the countrys outlook degraded because Putins broadened invasion of the Ukraine, so too has Wisconsins.
As an aside, its of interest to note how private work in Wisconsin has evolved, relative to the nation, considering that Senator Ron Johnson observed ” Its not like we dont have sufficient tasks here in Wisconsin”
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Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll work (black), Wisconsin Economic Outlook forecast from November (red squares), from February (green squares), all in 000s, s.a. Source: BLS through FRED and DoR (different concerns).
Im glad that DoR has actually resumed providing forecasts considering that the hiatus executed under the Scott Walker no-news regime (which lasted 4 years).
Here is Wisconsin GDP:.

Figure 3: Wisconsin personal nonfarm payroll employment (blue), and United States personal nonfarm payroll work (tan), in logs, 2020M02= 0, s.a. NBER defined peak-to-trough economic crisis dates shaded gray. Source: BLS via FRED, and authors computations
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From the November Wisconsin Economic Outlook (launched December 13):.

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