March 28, 2023

The Coming Macro Shock of 2023: China

As Paul Krugman notes,
” [Chinese President] Xi has actually quickly ended his signature “zero Covid” policy, with all signs indicating a substantial rise in hospitalizations and deaths that will worry healthcare to the snapping point; the Chinese economy seems set to face significant issues over the next 2 or 3 years”

From IHME, since 16 December 2022:

This entry was published on December 24, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Source: IHME, accessed 12/24/2022.
The question in my mind is how the Chinese authorities will react as infections, and consequently deaths and hospitalizations, surge. 4 days ago, the World Bank marked down estimated 2022 growth to 2.7% (Reuters).

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