This entry was published on December 22, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.
Figure 1: Lewis-Mertens-Stock Weekly Economic Index (blue), OECD Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index for United States plus 2% pattern (green). Source: NY Fed through FRED, OECD, WECI, and authors estimations.
The deceleration has actually been pretty constant over time, and throughout signs, with the exception of the Weekly Tracker, which dipped into negative for the week ending 11/26, prior to rebounding to match the WEI. The WEI reading for the week ending 12/17 of 1.2% is interpretable as a y/y quarter growth of 1.2% if the 1.2% reading were to continue for a whole quarter. The OECD Weekly Tracker reading of 1.3% is interpretable as a y/y growth rate of 1.3% for several years ending 12/17. The Baumeister et al. reading of 0.5% is analyzed as a 0.5% development rate in excess of long term trend growth rate. Average development of United States GDP over the 2000-19 period is about 2%, so this suggests a 2.5% development rate for the year ending 12/17.
Q4 GDPNow since 12/20 was 2.7% q/q SAAR. Therell be brand-new release tomorrow.
Weekly signs from Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) Weekly Economic Indicators, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI and Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker through 12/17, launched today.
