Figure 1: Change in personal nonfarm payroll employment (blue), and personal QCEW covered work in United States (red), and ADP personal nonfarm payroll employment (green), all not seasonally adjusted, all in 000s, relative to 2022M03= 0. Source: BLS, BLS and ADP by means of FRED and athors estimations.
In portion terms, the spaces are quite small; the CES series is 0.6 ppts above QCEW in June, and 0.5 ppts in November.
Looking at unadjusted data, CES data is 637 thousand above QCEW for June 2022; and is 837 thousand above ADP for November 2022.
Taking a look at not seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted private work from CES vs. QCEW and ADP.
Figure 2: Private nonfarm payroll employment (blue), personal QCEW covered work in United States (red), and ADP private nonfarm payroll employment not seasonally changed, all in logs, 2022M03= 0. Source: BLS, BLS and ADP via FRED, and athors computations.
For seasonally changed data, we have the following picture:
Figure 3: Change in private nonfarm payroll employment (blue), and private QCEW covered employment in United States (red), and ADP private nonfarm payroll employment, all in 000s, relative to 2022M03= 0. QCEW adjusted by author using log change, Census transformation X-13 and X-11 seasonal modification. Source: BLS, BLS and ADP via FREDand athors computations.
As of June, the CES series is 433 thousand below the QCEW series, while the CES series is above the ADP series by 297 thousand in November 2022. Undoubtedly, nevertheless, the QCEW figure is sensitive to how seasonal adjustment is used (Census X13/seasonal change X-11 vs. moving geometric average)