March 28, 2023

Why the Increase in Multiple Job Holders Cannot Account for Most of CES-CPS Discrepancy

Reader Steven Kopits asks me to “reveal us the mathematics” for why the increase in numerous task holders can not account for most of the disparity in between net task production from 2022M03 till 2022M11. Here it is:

Figure 1: Difference in net job production from nonfarm payroll series minus civilian employment series, because 2022M03 (dark blue), increase in numerous task holders since 2022M03, assuming employees increase from one to 2 jobs (green), and from one to 3 tasks (sky blue), all in 000s, seasonally adjusted. Numerous task holder series are BLS series LNU02026625, LNU02026631. Source: BLS via FRED, and authors calculations.
In order for several job holders to account for the complete disparity, each employee who had one job at 2022M03 wouldve had to handle an additional 13 tasks by 2022M11. That seems not likely. Simply sayin.
Personally, I put more credence in mismeasurement mainly– but not specifically– in the family study.

This entry was published on December 14, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *