March 24, 2023

Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-December

This entry was posted on December 15, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

November industrial and manufacturing production both amazed on the disadvantage– -0.2% and -0.1% vs. +0.1% and -0.1% m/m (Bloomberg). This is the resulting picture for some essential variables followed by the NBER Organization Cycle Dating Committee.


Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll work, NFP (dark blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income leaving out transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), usage in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and regular monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log stabilized to 2021M11= 0. Q3 Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit ( nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (12/1/2022 release), and authors estimations.
Retail sales (not in the set above) also declined -0.6% m/m, below -0.1% m/m in Bloomberg consensus.
Q4 GDPNow revised down from 3.4% q/q SAAR (12/9) to 3.2%, IHS-Markit/S&& P Global at 3.3% down from 3.6% (12/9), while GS the same at 1.7%

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