March 24, 2023

So You Think We Were In a Recession in 2022H1? – Last Observations for 2022

Figure 1, Top Panel: GDP (black), GDO (tan), GDP+ (green), all in bn.Ch.2012$ SAAR. GDP+ based upon cumulated development rates, scaled to 2018Q1. Bottom Panel: Coincident index (blue), nonfarm payroll work (green), aggregate weekly hours (tan), civilian employment (red), vehicle miles took a trip (purple), all in logs, 2021Q4= 0. Q4 observations for employment, hours, based upon October and November data. Lilac shading signifies peak-to-trough hypothetical recession. Source: BEA by means of FRED, BEA, Philadelphia Fed via FRED, Philadelphia Fed, BLS by means of FRED, FHA via FRED, and authors computations..
Note that GDP, GDO, and VMT are the three series that decreased from 2021Q4. We know that GDP and GDO will consequently revised (and GDP+ increased).
I am still hesitant that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee will declare a recession in 2022H1. Considering that all the variables will be revised going forward (except maybe VMT), one can not be certain

A minimum of someone still believes that since a couple weeks back.

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