March 28, 2023

Deceleration (through 12/3)!

Figure 2: Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker through 11/26 (tan), high/low (light tan), through 11/12 (green), through 10/15 (pink), through 8/20 (dark blue), all year-on-year, %. Source: OECD, different releases.
Offered these data, I d desire to wait prior to claiming negative y/y development. Nevertheless, what is clear is the United States economys development rate is slowing down on a year-on-year basis


Weekly indicators from Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) Weekly Economic Indicators, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI, through 12/3; and Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker through 11/26.

Figure 1: Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) Weekly Economic Index (blue), Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index for US plus 2% pattern (green). Source: NY Fed via FRED, OECD, WECI, all accessed 12/8, and authors estimations
The deceleration has been pretty consistent gradually, and across signs. The OECD Weekly Tracker, which reveals a significant decrease, is only readily available through 11/26. This series– based upon a big information method– reveals considerable variation gradually, in my experience. Helpfully, they supply a 95% high/low numbers. In Figure 2, I outline this for the most current vintage, together with select previous vintages.

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