Figure 2: Quarter-on-quarter inflation annualized, for CPI (bold blue), core CPI (tan), PCE deflator (strong sky blue), and core PCE deflator (light green). NBER defined peak-to-trough economic crisis dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, BEA through FRED, NBER, and authors estimations.
While year-ahead Michigan family expectations of inflation are up minor in November (5.1% prel vs 5% in October), they are still down vs. March-April 2022 (5.4%).
This entry was published on December 1, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.
Thats the message from PCE deflators today.
Figure 1: Month-on-month inflation annualized, for CPI (bold blue), core CPI (tan), PCE deflator (strong sky blue), and core PCE deflator (light green). NBER defined peak-to-trough economic crisis dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, BEA via FRED, NBER, and authors estimations.
And the quarter-on-quarter basis, the deceleration seems evident, except possibly for core CPI.
