March 28, 2023

Business Cycle Indicators at the Beginning of December 2022

With the release of individual intake and income for October, we have the following photo of essential series followed by the NBER BCDC (in addition to month-to-month GDP from IHS Markit, previously from Macroeconomic Advisers).

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, NFP (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus since 12/1 (blue +), civilian work (orange), industrial production (red), individual income leaving out transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), production and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), intake in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11= 0. Q3 Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, through FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (12/1/2022 release), and authors computations.
Individual earnings excluding present transfers and usage continued to increase. While Q3 GDP was revised up by 0.3 ppts SAAR, IHS Markit Monthly GDP rose in October also:
Regular monthly GDP rose 0.3% in October following a 0.5% decrease in September. The latter was modified lower by 0.4 portion point. The boost in month-to-month GDP in October was more than accounted for by a solid gain in genuine personal consumption expenses. Somewhere else, gains in October were recorded for nonresidential fixed financial investment, nonfarm stock investment, and others, while decreases were tape-recorded for domestic investment and net exports.
GDPNow since today is for 2.8% q/q SAAR in Q4. Offered the most likely modifications in GDP and the advancement of GDO, it seems unlikely (still) to me that an economic downturn occurred in 2022H1. An economic downturn in 2023 however, seems likely offered yield curve inversions and other predictors.

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