March 24, 2023

2022Q3 2nd Release, Alternative Measures of Activity, and a Recession of 2022H1?

Figure 2: GDP+ (blue bar), coincident index (teal), aggregate weekly hours adapted to preliminary benchmark modification (dark red), month-to-month GDP from IHS Markit (pink), and vehicle miles traveled, s.a. (orange), all normalized to 2021M11= 0. Assumed 2022H1 economic crisis dates shaded lilac. Source: Philadelphia Fed (11/30/2022), Philadelphia Fed (11/23/2022), BLS, BLS preliminary criteria revision, IHS Markit (11/1/2022), BTS by means of FRED, and authors estimations.
Note that while vehicle miles took a trip (VMT) as reported is below 2021M11 levels, given the times we live in, Im not sure VMT is a dependable indication of economic crisis, if it ever was (see this post). On the other hand, the other indications– GDP+, Philly Fed coincident index, or aggregate hours– show little evidence of a recession happening in 2022H1

Figure 1: GDP (black), GDO (tan), and GDP+ (teal), all in bn.Ch.2012$, in logs, 2019Q4= 0. Assumed 2022H1 peak-to-trough recession dates shaded lilac. Source: BEA 2022Q3 2nd release, Philadelphia Fed (11/30/2022), and authors computations.
Keep in mind that GDO displays a smaller sized decrease in GDP for Q1 and Q2 than GDP. GDP+ (gone over here) displays positive development throughout– although at a slower rate (keeping in mind that considering that the series are shown in log terms, a flatter slope denotes slower growth rate). GDP is likely to be modified over and over once again (see here).
What about monthly indicators, as compared to automobile miles took a trip which has been presumed as an indication of economic downturn? Some are shown listed below (traditional ones followed by NBER BCDC revealed here).

Heres GDP, GDO, and GDP+ through 2022Q3, and regular monthly signs through 2022M10. I (still) do not see an economic crisis in 2022H1.

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