Figure 2: Year-on-year UK CPI inflation (blue), HICP inflation (tan). Figure 3: UK Average hourly earnings in personal sector (2015= 100) deflated by CPI, on log scale. Figure 4: UK Average per hour earnings in private sector (2015= 100) deflated by CPI, on log scale.
Figure 1: UK CPI (blue), HICP (tan), on log scale. Source: ONS, Eurostat by means of FRED. Light green shading signifies 2015M01-2015M12.
Both CPI and HICP are greater in 2015M12 than in 2014M12. One can see this same information communicated in a various from by taking a look at the year-on-year values of inflation for 2015M12.
Figure 2: Year-on-year UK CPI inflation (blue), HICP inflation (tan). Source: ONS, Eurostat via FRED. Light green shading denotes 2015M01-2015M12..
Year-on-year inflation in 2015 was 0.5% (utilizing the CPI), and 0.2% (utilizing the HICP).
So, y/y inflation was not zero or unfavorable in 2015, although individual months may have recorded a m/m negative reading.
What about real wages? I take the OECDs procedure of average per hour profits in the economic sector (2015= 100), and.
Figure 3: UK Average per hour revenues in personal sector (2015= 100) deflated by CPI, on log scale. Source: ONS, by means of FRED, OECD, and authors calculations. Light green shading signifies 2015M01-2015M12.
Typical genuine salaries rose over 2015, from 98.4 in 2014M12 to 100.1 in 2015M12, or 1.6% in log terms.
I may venture to guess that real wages increased because the output gap nearly halved going from 2014 to 2015 (according to newest IMF WEO approximates). Note that inflation was much greater in 2016 (1.8% CPI y/y), and yet real wages rose 1.3%.
While real wages did rise in 2015, overlooking the longer period of information can mean that a person can take the boost out of context. Here is the real wage over a duration incorporating the start of Camerons austerity procedures.
Figure 4: UK Average per hour earnings in personal sector (2015= 100) deflated by CPI, on log scale. Source: ONS, through FRED, OECD, and authors estimations. Light green shading signifies 2015M01-2015M12. Red rushed line at June 2010 (Osborne budget speech).
By the end of 2015, genuine earnings were down 1% relative to the announcement of specific austerity procedures in June 2010,.
Bottom line: Instead of endlessly pricing quote numbers (for e.g., year through September), look at the darned numbers themselves. You can find almost anything you require in among the sources listed in this blogpost, “Data Source Compendium [Upgraded].
Likewise, for typical earnings, revenues, and so on, that JohnH might not discover previously, see this post
.
A long running argument between reader JohnH and almost any person else on this website includes UK 2015 (1) inflation, and (2) real salaries, with JohnH quoting from different files. I thought it useful to GET THE DATA MYSELF to solve the concern. Below are three charts, of customer price level, year-on-year inflation, and the CPI deflated wage.
A long running dispute between reader JohnH and simply about any person else on this website includes UK 2015 (1) inflation, and (2) real salaries, with JohnH estimating from different files. Below are three charts, of consumer cost level, year-on-year inflation, and the CPI deflated wage.
