A long running dispute between reader JohnH and just about anybody else on this website includes UK 2015 (1) inflation, and (2) real incomes, with JohnH quoting from different files. Below are 3 graphs, of consumer rate level, year-on-year inflation, and the CPI deflated wage.
Figure 4: UK Average per hour revenues in private sector (2015= 100) deflated by CPI, on log scale. Source: ONS, through FRED, OECD, and authors computations. Light green shading represents 2015M01-2015M12. Red dashed line at June 2010 (Osborne budget plan speech).
By the end of 2015, real earnings were down 1% relative to the statement of specific austerity steps in June 2010,.
Bottom line: Instead of endlessly pricing estimate numbers (for e.g., year through September), look at the darned numbers themselves. You can find almost anything you require in among the sources noted in this blogpost, “Data Source Compendium [Upgraded].
Likewise, for median wages, incomes, and so on, that JohnH might not find before, see this post
.
A long running debate in between reader JohnH and almost anybody else on this website involves UK 2015 (1) inflation, and (2) real incomes, with JohnH pricing estimate from different files. I thought it useful to GET THE DATA MYSELF to fix the question. Below are three graphs, of customer price level, year-on-year inflation, and the CPI deflated wage.
Figure 2: Year-on-year UK CPI inflation (blue), HICP inflation (tan). Source: ONS, Eurostat by means of FRED. Light green shading represents 2015M01-2015M12..
Year-on-year inflation in 2015 was 0.5% (utilizing the CPI), and 0.2% (utilizing the HICP).
Y/y inflation was not no or unfavorable in 2015, although specific months might have tape-recorded a m/m unfavorable reading.
What about real incomes? I take the OECDs measure of average hourly incomes in the economic sector (2015= 100), and.
Figure 2: Year-on-year UK CPI inflation (blue), HICP inflation (tan). Figure 3: UK Average hourly revenues in personal sector (2015= 100) deflated by CPI, on log scale. Figure 4: UK Average hourly profits in private sector (2015= 100) deflated by CPI, on log scale.
Figure 3: UK Average hourly earnings in personal sector (2015= 100) deflated by CPI, on log scale. Source: ONS, through FRED, OECD, and authors estimations. Light green shading represents 2015M01-2015M12.
Average real earnings rose over 2015, from 98.4 in 2014M12 to 100.1 in 2015M12, or 1.6% in log terms.
Since the output space almost halved going from 2014 to 2015 (according to newest IMF WEO approximates), I might venture to think that genuine incomes increased. Keep in mind that inflation was much higher in 2016 (1.8% CPI y/y), and yet real incomes rose 1.3%.
While real wages did increase in 2015, disregarding the longer span of data can imply that a person can take the increase out of context. Here is the real wage over a period encompassing the start of Camerons austerity measures.
Figure 1: UK CPI (blue), HICP (tan), on log scale. Source: ONS, Eurostat through FRED. Light green shading signifies 2015M01-2015M12.
Both CPI and HICP are higher in 2015M12 than in 2014M12. One can see this very same details communicated in a various from by looking at the year-on-year values of inflation for 2015M12.
