March 24, 2023

The State of the Economy in Real Time, Election Eve and Year Ahead

This entry was posted on November 18, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Figure 1: Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) Weekly Economic Index (blue), Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index for United States plus 2% trend (green). Lilac shading represents a hypothetical 2022H1 recession. Source: NY Fed by means of FRED, OECD, WECI, and authors computations.

Thus, while theres not currently a high actual time likelihood of recession aggregated up from the state level, the 52 week ahead forecast is for increasing probability

This index is explained in this post and has actually been cited in numerous posts on this blog site.
What are the prospects for economic crisis at the state level, based upon the index?

Christiane Baumeister shared this picture as of the week ending on Oct 29, 2022 compared to the same week one year ago, determined in development rates relative to long-run nationwide typical growth, as determined by the Buameister/Leiva-Leon/Sims weekly financial conditions index.

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