March 28, 2023

Business Cycle Indicators at Mid-November

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll work, NFP (dark blue), Bloomberg agreement as of 11/16 (blue +), civilian work (orange), commercial production (red), individual earnings omitting transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), production and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), usage in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11= 0. Q3 GDP is from GDPNow for 11/16. Lilac shading denotes a hypothetical economic crisis in 2022H1. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, by means of FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (11/1/2022 release), GDPNow (11/16) and authors calculations.
While commercial production declined, and manufacturing production rose only 0.1% vs. 0.2% m/m consensus, retail sales far exceeded expectations.
GDPNow as of today is for 4.382% q/q SAAR in Q4. Provided the most likely revisions in GDP and the development of GDO, it appears unlikely (still) to me that an economic downturn took place in 2022H1. An economic crisis in 2023 nevertheless, appears likely provided yield curve inversions and other predictors

This entry was posted on November 16, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Industrial production decreased 0.1% m/m, vs. Bloomberg agreement +0.2. NFP work rose in October strongly. Other key indicators followed by NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.

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