Oil prices are down, and futures are in backwardation. Gasoline rates are likewise (method) down from June peaks.
Figure 2: Price per gallon of regular, $/ gallon (blue), and genuine cost, 2020$/ gallon (red). Genuine price computed utilizing core CPI, October CPI using nowcast as of 11/4. NBER specified peak-to-trough economic downturn dates shaded gray. Source: EIA via FRED, BLS by means of FRED, Cleveland Fed, NBER and authors calculations
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This entry was posted on November 6, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.
Figure 1: Oil rate of WTI, regular monthly average (blue), and NYMEX futures rate since 11/4 (brown), $/ bbl. Source: EIA through FRED, ino.com..
While futures rates show a decline (both now, and back in October), the EIA STEO forcast from October was for price increase. Most likely, when the November STEO comes out, that pattern will continue. (That being stated, statistical analyses typically show futures outperform most forecasts, although STEO forecasts do quite well.).
Gasoline rates for routine have also fallen.
