March 24, 2023

Reminder: Using the “Two-Consecutive-Quarter Rule” There Is No 2001 Recession

Figure 1: GDP since 1/30/2002 (blue), as of 12/10/2003 (tan), as of 10/27/2022 (green), in Ch.2012$ in logs, 2001Q1= 0. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA by means of ALFRED, BEA, NBER, and authors computations..
Note that ECRI dates and NBER dates are the exact same for this peak-to-trough episode.
Based on GDP, Jim Hamilton keeps in mind that by the Chauvet-Hamilton step, as of 2022Q2, the United States economy was not in economic crisis. One commentator slavishly hews to the 2 quarter guideline, based on the present statistics.
See likewise [1], [2]

This entry was posted on November 5, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

A minimum of currently. At end 2003, there was. Not as of January 2002.

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