March 24, 2023

On the Eve of the Q3 GDP Release: Coincident Index and GDPNow

Jim will have more in a few hours, but for now, here is GDPNow since 10/26, compared to month-to-month GDP (since October 4), and the Philadelphia Fed Concident Index.

Source: Philadelphia Fed, 10/26/2022 release.

Figure 2: Coincident index for United States (blue, left scale), diffusion index for 1 month modifications of coincident index (tan, right scale). NBER specified peak-to-trough rececssion dates shaded gray. Lilac shading represents assumed 2022H1 economic downturn. Source: Philadelphia Fed, NBER and authors estimations.
Heres the map for the US, using 3 month growth rates in the coincident indices, showing how extensive (or not) declines in financial activity are.

Figure 1: Coincident index for United States (teal), regular monthly GDP from IHS-Markit (pink), and main GDP (blue bars), all stabilized to 2021M11=0. Source: Philadelphia Fed, IHS-Markit (10/4 release), BEA, and Atlanta Fed (10/26 release), and authors estimations.
Keep in mind that the coincident index for the US, reflecting month-to-month labor market and other indications, has actually been on a stable upward trend throughout a putative H1 2022 recession.
In addition, whatever slump there has actually been at a local level, it does not seem to have increased to recessionary levels, at least according to the diffusion index connected with the coincident index.

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