Month-to-month indicators followed by the NBER Company Cycle Dating Committee, plus GDP and GDO, plus IHS-Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) month-to-month GDP:
Figure 3: Vehicle miles took a trip, seasonally changed (chartreuse), oil intake in millions barrels per day (black), and heavy truck sales countless systems at yearly rate (pink), all log stabilized to 2021M11=0. Lilac shading signifies dates connected with a hypothetical economic crisis in H1. Source: BTS, EIA, BEA by means of FRED, and authors estimations.
As I revealed in this post, lorry miles took a trip, regardless of improvement, is a pretty poor indication, and definitely exceeded by heavy truck sales. Thus, the flat trajectory for VMT and oil consumption appear fascinating, but not dispositive for me. The rise in heavy truck sales does appear to counter the argument of an economic downturn in H1.
Second, GDO displays much shallower drop than GDP. Third, GDP will continue to be revised over time; hence, the shapes of GDP may look quite different in a couple years, much like what took place with the economic crisis of 2001 (which in the end did not conform to the “two-consecutive quarter” guideline of thumb).
Looking forward, Bloomberg agreement as of today is 2.4%, GDPNow is at 2.9% (10/19), St. Louis Fed “news” index is 1.3% (10/21).
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg agreement as of 10/25 for NFP (blue +), civilian employment (orange), commercial production (red), personal earnings excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), intake in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and regular monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), official GDP (blue bars), all log stabilized to 2021M11=0. Figure 2: Nonfarm payroll employment as implied by preliminary benchmark revision (dark blue), civilian work (orange), commercial production (red), personal income omitting transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and regular monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), main GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Second, GDO shows much shallower drop than GDP. Third, GDP will continue to be modified over time; thus, the shapes of GDP might look quite different in a couple years, much like what occurred with the economic downturn of 2001 (which in the end did not adhere to the “two-consecutive quarter” rule of thumb).
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg agreement as of 10/25 for NFP (blue +), civilian work (orange), commercial production (red), individual income omitting transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), intake in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and regular monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), official GDP (blue bars), all log stabilized to 2021M11=0. Lilac shading represents dates associated with a hypothetical economic crisis in H1. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, by means of FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (10/4/2022 release), and authors estimations.
Figure 2: Nonfarm payroll work as indicated by initial benchmark revision (dark blue), civilian employment (orange), commercial production (red), personal income omitting transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), production and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), usage in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), main GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Lilac shading denotes dates connected with a hypothetical economic downturn in H1. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, by means of FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (10/4/2022 release), and authors calculations.
Its of interest to remember what prompted the claims of recession for H1 2022. For some it was the negative read on GDP. For others, it was vehicle miles traveled, or oil consumption (both from Steven Kopits). Heres the development of these 2 signs (which I consider lagging or simultaneous), and heavy truck sales (suggested by Calculated Risk).
