March 24, 2023

Weekly Macroeconomic Activity through 10/15

As determined by NY Fed WEI, OECD Weekly Tracker, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI.

Figure 1: Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) Weekly Economic Index (blue), Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index for United States plus 2% trend (green). Lilac shading signifies a theoretical 2022H1 economic crisis. Source: NY Fed by means of FRED, OECD, WECI, and authors calculations.
The WEI has been falling for three weeks now, to 1.2% from 2.8% for the week ending 9/24, while the Weekly Tracker and WECI both rose. The Weekly Tracker– at 1.0%– is a “huge data” technique that uses Google Trends and maker learning to track GDP.
The WEI reading for the week ending 10/15 of 1.2% is interpretable as a y/y quarter growth of 1.2% if the 1.2% reading were to continue for a whole quarter. The OECD Weekly Tracker reading of 1.0% is interpretable as a y/y growth rate of 1.0% for year ending 10/15. The Baumeister et al. reading of 1.5% is translated as a 1.5% development rate in excess of long term trend growth rate. Typical development of US GDP over the 2000-19 duration has to do with 2%, so this indicates a 3.5% growth rate for the year ending 10/15.
Considering that these are year-on-year development rates, its possible we remained in an economic downturn in H1 as one observer asserted a couple months ago, however it (still) appears unlikely.
GDPNow for Q3 since 10/19 is 2.9% q/q SAAR

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