Source: IMF, WEO (October 2022), Fig. 1-16.
What is Chinese economic activity growth? Until we get the report, well need to be content with proxy steps. McKenna at Wells Fargo Economics (October 14) provides this heatmap of the Chinese economy, for recommendation.
It wouldve been a partial secret even if NBS had actually released the number. Now its much more of a secret, as the release has been delayed forever (Trade information is a secret too …).
Figure 1: China GDP (black), Bloomberg consensus since 10/17 (sky blue square), and IMF World Economic Outlook October 2022 forecasts (red square), mn 2020CNY, quarterly rates. ECRI peak-to-trough economic crisis dates shaded gray. Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics, Bloomberg (October 17, 2022), and IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2022, ECRI, and authors computations.
The recently launched IMF WEO forecasts show 0.2% q4/q4 growth in 2022, and reduce in output in 2023. The forecast for 2022 is the same from July, but down 0.4 ppts from April.
In any case, we understand with even less certainty than typical what is happening with Chinese GDP. While just recently, Chinese GDP appears to track alternative business-cylce frequency estimators, such as the Fernald-Hsu-Spiegel CCAT (see this post), this hold-up is disconcerting, especially considering that China accounts for about 18% of world output (compared to 14% for the eurozone, and 25% for the United States, evaluated at existing exchange rates). (Note this is a different concern from trend growth, as talked about in the current paper by Martinez (JPE, 2022) [ungated variation] on how GDP data overstate growth in dictatorships).
While China represent less than US share of (estimated) 2022 nominal world GDP, its contribution to the variance from trend forecasted real development is as large as that of the United States.
Heres reported GDP, Bloomberg agreement, and the IMF October 2022 World Economic Outlook forecast.
Source: Wells Fargo Economics (October 14, 2022)
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Figure 1: China GDP (black), Bloomberg agreement as of 10/17 (sky blue square), and IMF World Economic Outlook October 2022 forecasts (red square), mn 2020CNY, quarterly rates. Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics, Bloomberg (October 17, 2022), and IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2022, ECRI, and authors estimations.
The recently released IMF WEO forecasts show 0.2% q4/q4 development in 2022, and reduce in output in 2023. The forecast for 2022 is the same from July, but down 0.4 ppts from April.
