Figure 2: Nonfarm payroll work as implied by annual benchmark revisions (dark blue), civilian employment (orange), commercial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), production and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), intake in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and regular monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), official GDP through Q2, and GDPNow for Q3 (teal bars), all log stabilized to 2021M11=0. Usage and industrial production likewise increased (by about 1% and 2% respectively) over this period.
Industrial and manufacturing production both at 0.4% m/m growth, above agreement (0.1% and 0.2%, respectively) in September, showing resumed development. This is the image of crucial macro signs followed by the NBER Organization Cycle Dating Committee, plus IHS-Markit regular monthly GDP.
Here is the corresponding picture, revealing main GDP (through Q2), and the implied level of GDP from the Atlanta Feds GDPNow nowcast (10/14/2022).
Figure 2: Nonfarm payroll employment as indicated by annual benchmark modifications (dark blue), civilian work (orange), industrial production (red), personal earnings excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), usage in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), main GDP through Q2, and GDPNow for Q3 (teal bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Lilac shading signifies dates associated with a hypothetical recession in H1. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, through FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (10/4/2022 release), GDPNow (10/14/22 release), and authors estimations.
Keep in mind the ongoing development in the labor series even during the downturn in main GDP throughout H1, which some observers have tagged as a recessionary period. Usage and commercial production likewise increased (by about 1% and 2% respectively) over this period. I stay hesitant of the remarks that we were in an economic crisis in 2022H1.
Obviously, this is a backwards looking assessment. A high frequency assessment is here (albeit looking at y/y growth to recently). Looking forward, lots of financial experts see an economic crisis.
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, NFP (dark blue), civilian work (orange), industrial production (red), personal income omitting transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), production and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), usage in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and regular monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, by means of FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (10/4/2022 release), and authors computations.
GDP as reported in the yearly benchmark modification reported at end-2022 (which modified the series up through 2022Q1) shows 2 quarters of decrease. Nevertheless, as kept in mind elsewhere, this is not the main meaning of an economic downturn in the United States; rather that decision is made by the NBERs Business Cycle Dating Committee, based upon a wide range of signs, and just secondarily on (oft-revised) GDP. Here is the matching picture, revealing main GDP (through Q2), and the suggested level of GDP from the Atlanta Feds GDPNow nowcast (10/14/2022).
