March 28, 2023

Guest Contribution: “Gauging Recessions with the Jobs-Worker Gap – Updated”

This entry was posted on October 9, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Today, we are lucky to present a guest contribution written by Paweł Skrzypczyński, financial expert at the National Bank of Poland. The views revealed herein are those of the author and needs to not be associated to the National Bank of Poland.

We present an upgrade of the jobs-workers space discussed in this post:
If we presume that task openings remain at August level in September and include September data from the Household Survey we show up at the space of 2.6% in September. Our service cycle indication based on the jobs-workers space, the JWGBCI, determined as the m/m change in the three-month moving average of the jobs-workers space relative to its optimum throughout previous twelve months, drops from -0.5 pp in August to -0.6 pp in September.

Figure 1. Jobs-Workers Gap, %

Figure 3. Jobs-Workers Gap Business Cycle Indicator, Percentage Points.
Conclusion: Labor market conditions reduced and stay still consistent with the soft landing circumstance.

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