This entry was posted on September 29, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.
Garcia-Herrero and Xu, “Chinas Covid Restrictions May Slash More than Two Percentage Points of Growth in 2022,” (Natixis, Sep 27, 2022):.
[Presuming] Covid-related mobility limitations in 03 to stay comparable for 04, the overall decrease in Chinas GDP growth in 2022 might be 2.3 percentage points.
Note that this computation relates to consumption results adduced by means of mobility-consumption connections. It does not integrate any other impacts, such as investment action to consumption reduction.
Note the end-July World Economic Outlook forecasted 4.1% q4/q4 growth for 2022.