March 24, 2023

GDPNow Q3 at 2.4% SAAR

Atlanta Fed upped its nowcast for Q3 from 0.3%, on the basis of sophisticated international information, and yearly standard GDP numbers:

If Q3 ends up being 2.4% as nowcasted, then the photo of company cycle signs appears like this:

This entry was published on September 30, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll work (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus since 9/30 for NFP (blue +), civilian employment (orange), commercial production (red), individual earnings leaving out transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), production and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), usage in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), main GDP with Q3 observation indicated by GDNowcast of 9/30 (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11= 0. Lilac shading signifies dates connected with a theoretical economic crisis in H1. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, by means of FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (9/1/2022 release), Atlanta Fed (accessed 9/30), and authors estimations

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